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Apple Issues Disappointing Q4 Revenue Outlook amid iPhone 15 Sales Worries in China

Apple's Q3 sales in Great China shrank 2.5% from a year ago compared with a 7.9% increase in Q2. iPhone 15 series have only a minimal impact on Q3 sales and Apple typically has its biggest sales of new iPhone models in Q4.

BEIJING, November 2 (TMTPost)— Apple Inc., warned it could fail to reverse revenue decline in the year-end quarter, raising more concerns on the U.S. tech giant whose earnings have been weighed by China market.

Credit:Visual China

Credit:Visual China

Apple’s revenue fell 0.7% year-over-year (YoY) to $89.5 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter ended September 30, slightly ahead of analysts’ expectation of $89.3 billion. While the sales decline eased compare with the previous quarter’s decrease of 1.4%, the Cupertino, California-based company still posted the fourth consecutive quarterly drop in revenue, the longest such slump since 2001. Earnings per share (EPS) in the September quarter rose 13% YoY to $1.46, beating the expected $1.39, and net income of $22.96 billion was also better than the projection of $21.8 billion.  

Apple’s business in all the major markets but Americas dropped in the September quarter. Sales in Great China, its third largest market, shrank 2.5% YoY to $15.08 billion, missing the analysts’ forecast of $17 billion, and represented a significant slowdown compared with a 7.9% increase in the previous quarter.

Apple’s key hardware offering iPhone generated $43.81 billion that quarter with a 2.8% YoY increase, roughly in line with the analysts’ estimates. The sales set a record in the same period of a year and improved from the previous quarter, when iPhone sales fell 2.4% YoY.

Revenue in the current quarter is expected to be similar to the same period a year ago, Apple chief financial officer (CFO) Luca Maestri told analysts at an earnings call on Thursday. That is a weaker-than expected outlook as the Wall Street projected revenue in the December quarter will climb around 5% YoY to $122.8 billion. The sluggish outlook was such a disappointed strike that Apple shares fell as much as 4.6% in extended trading that day.

Despite decline in total revenue, China saw iPhone sales grew YoY in the September quarter. Apple CEO Tim Cook said his company set a quarterly record for iPhone in mainland China, and had four out of the top five best-selling smartphones in urban China. Maestri said overall sales of iPhone will record a positive YoY growth in the current quarter even though this year’s holiday quarter has one-week sales less than last year.

In comparison to the past quarter, what’s makes the Wall Street more concerned is Apple’s holiday-quarter outlook since iPhone 15 series, which launched in late September, have only a minimal impact on company’s September quarter sales and Apple typically has its biggest sales of new iPhone models in the quarter ended December, when new offerings on sales act as the main driver.  

"The elephant in the room this quarter is clearly China demand around iPhone 15 units, which appears to have slowed the last month after coming out of the gates strong with preorder activity," said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives prior to Apple’s financial results.  

Recent data suggested iPhone 15 started off low in China and Huawei has dethroned Apple from its position as the best-selling smartphone in China due to Mate 60 series’ sales boom, which fueled questions about Apple’s sales outlook in the world’s largest smartphone market.

Smartphone sales in China dropped 3% YoY in the third quarter, but Huawei became the big winner, growing 37% YoY on the back of its newly launched Mate 60 series, which is powered by its SoC Kirin 9000S, according to a note from Counterpoint Research last week.The market research firm also estimated that Sales of iPhone 15 in China are 4.5% lower than the iPhone 14 over their first 17 days after release. It estimated Huawei has sold 1.6 million Mate 60 Pro handsets in six weeks, and more than 400,000 units out of the sales were sold in the past two weeks, when Apple launched its latest mobile iPhone 15 on mainland China.

 “Sentiment has turned more challenging for shares of Apple in recent days with increasing concerns around the lower demand for the iPhone 15 Series in China, as well as lackluster consumer spending momentum globally,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee in a note earlier this week.

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