导语：

感谢大家订阅皮埃罗·斯加鲁菲（Piero Scaruffi）的钛媒体72问.知识专栏《硅谷的秘密》。我是今天的提问者赵何娟。前面我们讲了很多硅谷如何面对失败，教育系统又如何在硅谷发生着作用，同时我们听到了机器人在底特律发明，却为何在硅谷大放光彩成为趋势的故事，全世界很多人都把硅谷作为风向标，硅谷往哪走，他们就往哪走，那么问题来了，硅谷又是从哪里来预判下一个热点或者趋势的呢？

正文：

When people ask me what is the next trend in Silicon Valley? You think, I am so stupid to ask Apple or Google apple and Google we simply tell you that product that they are developing period,  if you ask them what is the next big thing apple will tell you the next big thing is the iPhone 7. Of course, what does that tell me nothing absolutely nothing. What I do I is to go to GitHub. There are the number one projects concrete ranks you know basically many people are interested in this project I got to get hub so four years ago, you saw a lot of machine learning projects very high. This was before people went crazy about AI. 

有人会问我硅谷的下一个趋势是什么？你觉得我会笨到去问苹果或谷歌下一个趋势是什么吗？因为他们只会告诉你，下一个趋势就是他们正在研发的产品。如果你问苹果下一个重要的技术是什么？他们会告诉你是 iPhone 7。但这个答案又有什么意义呢？并没有，我会去GitHub那上面看排名第一的开源软件项目是什么？多少人会对这个项目感兴趣？几年前，你可以在GitHub上看到热门的机器学习项目。那时人们还不会对人工智能这么的疯狂。

The whole movement of open source software and hardware is extremely important that's where people really do what they think is important during the day they work at the company and they just follow orders if the boss decided to develop the iPhone 7, I would work on the iPhone 7. Why? Because they are paid a salary to do that, then I go home and work in something completely different. I want to know what is a different thing that you are doing because that's you are somebody knows the technology very well and you are wasting your time your precious time on that thing.

那些人为自己觉得重要的事情而努力工作。在硅谷，一些苹果的工程师接到上级的指令要研发 iPhone 7，他们就去做这款手机，因为他们苹果给他们工资。完成工作之后，他们回到家里会做一些完全不同的项目。他们也知道自己在做什么？什么是真正重要的技术？他们不会在其他事情上浪费时间。如果你知道什么技术很重要，你不会在一些你认为不重要的技术上宝贵的时间。

Tell me what it is the next track? So, it's extremely important and people underestimate now when the dotcom, at the begin of the internet, the big problem was how do you make money out of it. Why? Because in Silicon Valley, everybody was doing for free so all these products are free. Search engines are free, social media free. How do you make money? The venture capitalist couldn't figure out how do you make money. You know the traditional business plan was, I make this laptop, I sell it at this price.

你可以告诉我下一个技术发展的趋势是什么吗？知道这个趋势非常重要，但是很多人都会低估了解趋势的重要性。在互联网时代初期，人们的问题是你怎么样才能赚大钱？为什么这样问？因为在硅谷的每个产品都是免费的，所有的产品都不收钱。社交媒体和搜索引擎都是免费的，你怎么样才能赚钱呢？风险投资人就会问你怎么样才能盈利？传统的商业模式是：我做出了手提电脑，把它卖掉，我就赚到钱了。

So, in the business plan that you present to venture capitalist, you show these are the cost, the revenues and the profit. Very simple to understand but when all these kids came out with do I have this great idea for an app for an application of the internet. Okay, how much does it cost? Free. 

所以你向风险投资人展示商业计划，要告诉他们成本是多少，产品是什么，预计有多少收入？你的商业计划必须简单易懂。但是，年轻的孩子想到很好的点子，想要做应用程序或者是网络插件时，你去问他们这个产品要多少钱？他们会告诉你说不用钱。

What is the money? So, the dotcom crashed also because venture capitalist could not understand how you are going to make money. And eventually it was really yahoo was first to recognize. At the beginning, yahoo was very smart. They come up with idea we can create massive advertising revenues but the problem is free. It took a long time for the traditional businessman to understand a free product is very available today the number one company in the world is Google whose product is free. 

互联网泡沫破灭的原因是风险投资人不知道这些产品要怎么赚钱，所以当时雅虎就非常聪明，因为他们想到利用广告创造收入。他们的产品确实是免费的。传统的投资人也花了很长的时间才明白，免费的产品也是可以赚钱的，而且还非常的有价值。现在世界上最好的公司就是谷歌，谷歌旗下的产品都不收费。

Such a change requires, such a creative mind to think the number one product in the world is free. But if you were in Silicon Valley, you’re in the culture of not afraid of failure, the culture of “don't worry about the money”. The money is not the number one thing. The number one thing is doing something that is really great, that you really like and you really want that thing to be useful. 

所以我们在思想上要做出转变，变得更加有创造性，明白全世界最好的公司所做出的产品是免费的。但是如果你在硅谷，你会处于一种“不怕失败”、“不担心金钱问题”的文化当中。在硅谷，钱不是最重要的。最重要的是，你在做一件很伟大的事情，你热爱这件事情，而且你想研究出非常有用的发明。

【版权归钛媒体所有，未经许可不得转载】